This just in...eight of the 12 spots have been decided for the Chase.
That, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. needs a miracle of gargantuan proportions.
Should NASCAR change things around? I think so, especially since the separation between Clint Bowyer in ninth and Kevin Harvick in 12th is only 38 points heading to Richmond. Earnhardt is 128 points back.
Translation: As long as Harvick finishes 32nd or better, he's in and Junior's out for the second time in three years.
Here are the latest power rankings after the Sharp AQUOS 500 at California Speedway.
1. Jimmie Johnson: Sorry, Jeff, but by virtue of your teammate's fifth win, he's going to start the Chase ahead of you.
2. Jeff Gordon: See above. The 24 hasn't won since Pocono in June.
3. Tony Stewart: Lost late-race gamble, still among the favorites.
4. Denny Hamlin: Started ninth, but finished 19th.
5. Matt Kenseth: Rallied nicely from 36th, was second at one point.
6. Carl Edwards: Second-best sucks, as he so brillantly put it.
7. Jeff Burton: A top-5 run despite another race without a logo on the hood.
8. Martin Truex, Jr.: Only disaster will keep him away from the Chase.
9. Kyle Busch: Led the most laps, but lost shot at win with late pit stop.
10. Clint Bowyer: Struggled most of the night Sunday, but rallied back.
11. Kurt Busch: The pressure is off.
12. Kevin Harvick: The Daytona 500 winner can't slip up Saturday. He's the defending champ at both the Busch and Cup races at Richmond.
On the way up: Brian Vickers and A.J. Allmendinger: Two solid runs for Team Red Bull in Toyotas.
On the way out: Ricky Rudd; 900th career start seriously forgettable. Hurt wrist and shoulder in late-race crash.
How they stand: Here's where the eligible drivers stand for the Chase with one race left. Their current standing in the points is in parenthesis:
1. Jimmie Johnson 5050 (6). Sunday's win was huge for the defending Cup champ.
2. Jeff Gordon 5040 (1). The power of wins in the new Chase shown here.
3. Tony Stewart 5030 (2). He struggled at Richmond in last year's fall race.
4. Carl Edwards 5020 (4). Two more top-5 runs than Kurt Busch.
5. Kurt Busch 5020 (11). Another example of the new Chase at work.
6. Denny Hamlin 5010 (3). Would love a home-turf win Saturday for more Chase momentum.
7. Matt Kenseth 5010 (5). There's something to be said for consistency.
8. Jeff Burton 5010 (7). Could use a good finish Saturday.
9. Kyle Busch 5010 (8). Last race before the Chase is a COT race. Look out.
10. Martin Truex, Jr. (10). Richmond should be considered close to home for Truex.
11. Kevin Harvick (12). Daytona 500 champ still not a lock for the Chase.
12. Clint Bowyer (9). He had a good car at Richmond in May.