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August 21, 2007

Michigan Power Rankings

I never thought we'd get the race in, but not even a fog delay could keep the 3M Performance 400 from being run on Tuesday morning at Michigan International Speedway. Happy dances all around, especially for Kurt Busch, who won for the second time in three weeks.
With three races left until the Chase, positions are starting to take shape.
Read on to see how Busch stands in the newest edition of the power rankings from the 3M Performance 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

1. Jeff Gordon: He spun late and finished 27th. Alert the media!
2. Denny Hamlin: Picked up a top-5 at Michigan, gained ground on Gordon and clinched a Chase spot.
3. Tony Stewart: Finished 10th at Michigan, but was third in June.
4. Jimmie Johnson: He's happy to have Chad Knaus back, as evidenced by his third-place run.
5. Matt Kenseth: Finished fourth on Tuesday, is looking forward to finally getting to Bristol, where he's won the last two Sharpie 500s.
6. Carl Edwards: Didn't quite have the car that got him the win in June, but still finished seventh.
7. Martin Truex, Jr.: Chase position looking more secure after a runner-up showing.
8. Jeff Burton: Finished 14th at Michigan.
9. Kurt Busch: Don't be surprised if he's a factor when the Chase kicks into high gear.
10. Clint Bowyer: Will be stuck in 12th for Chase unless he gets that elusive first win.
11. Kyle Busch: Slipped from sixth to 13th at Michigan.
12. Kevin Harvick: Still crying over the Montoya incident from last week.

On the way up: Dave Blaney (sixth) and Brian Vickers (eighth), who gave Toyota two top-10s for the first time this season.
On the way out: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (guy can't buy a break), Ryan Newman (16th on Tuesday, but that won't get it done now).

Bristol track fact: In the debut of the Car of Tomorrow, Kyle Busch won the spring race at Bristol and announced to the world what he thought about the car ("it sucks") in Victory Lane.
Matt Kenseth is going for his third straight win in Saturday's Sharpie 500. If he pulls it off, he'd be the third driver (Jimmie Johnson at Las Vegas and Greg Biffle at Homestead) to hold three straight wins at a particular track.

And now, as promised in the print column, here's how they stand with three races left before the Chase. Ten points are awarded for each race won.

1. Jeff Gordon 5040 (has four wins and six poles).
2. Jimmie Johnson 5040 (four wins, no poles)
3. Tony Stewart 5030 (three wins)
4. Kurt Busch 5020 (He's 12th in points now, which makes Tuesday's win at Michigan huge).

The next seven drivers all have a single win, so you have to go down each column in the stat sheet (poles won, top-5s, top-10s, etc.) to break ties.

5. Denny Hamlin 5010 (only driver of the group with a pole won, so he's easy to figure)
6. Matt Kenseth 5010 (picked up eighth top-5 of season Tuesday, two better than Jeff Burton).
7. Jeff Burton 5010 (six top-5 runs in 2007).
8. Kyle Busch 5010 (has five top-5s and 12 top-10s, three better than Carl Edwards)

After Busch, Carl Edwards and Martin Truex, Jr. have identical stats across the board - one win, five top-5s, nine top-10s, but Edwards edges out Truex because he's only had one DNF to Truex's two.

9. Edwards 5010
10. Truex, Jr. 5010

And finally...

11. Kevin Harvick 5010 (only four top-5s on the season).
12. Clint Bowyer 5000 (no wins hurts, but he'll be only 40 points off the pace).

Three to go, all at night - Bristol, California and Richmond. Strap in and enjoy the ride.

August 20, 2007

Rain, Rain Day 2

As if waiting out the rain on Sunday wasn't bad enough, it was a carbon-copy repeat Monday at Michigan International Speedway.
More rain meant another postponement, this one to Tuesday morning. But should rain be an issue again (and the Weather Channel web site is saying there's a 30 percent chance of "a few showers" in the forecast), NASCAR is in a world of serious hurt.
Read on and you'll know what happens when you try to cram 36 weeks of racing into a nine-month window.

The back-to-back postponements at Michigan are the first NASCAR has had to deal with in 10 years. When it happened the last time - at the spring race in Talladega in 1997 - it was pushed back two weeks and run on May 10. That year, the schedule was only 32 races long. There was wiggle room to take care of weather issues.
Sadly, NASCAR's last off week of this season happened last month after the race at Chicago on July 15. Any wiggle room that may have been available before is now gone.
You see, this is a short week for NASCAR leading into Saturday night's Sharpie 500 at Bristol. The Craftsman Truck series race, the O'Reilly 200, is scheduled for Wednesday night. Mark Martin and Kyle Busch have rides, but they're still tied up trying to get the race done at Michigan.
I saw a couple of additional facts pointed out in a NASCAR.com story that makes me pray extremely hard that the 3M Performance 400 won't have to be moved to Thanksgiving weekend. Two years ago, the speedway was buried in a blizzard on the holiday. And as if that weren't enough, the speedway grounds has hosted the state's high-school cross country championships on Thanksgiving weekend for the last 11 years.
If the rain keeps falling, no matter how light, NASCAR may find itself in a major pickle.
Remember 2001? That year, the September New Hampshire raced was pushed back to the last one of that season because of Sept. 11. It was the first season NASCAR ran a 36-race schedule, but no one seemed to mind then.
Now is an entirely different story.
Grab the paper, get a bowl of cereal and some toast at the ready, and pray hard we'll be racing on Tuesday. Coverage is set for an 8 a.m. start on ESPN2 (Baja Broadband cable channel 28 in St. George) - weather permitting.

August 19, 2007

Rain, Rain go away

With the 3M Performance 400 at Michigan International Speedway postponed until Monday, I knew it was time to stop and take a look at the standings with four races left until the Chase for the Nextel Cup - gotta get that in while we can since it becomes the Sprint Cup in 2008 - gets rolling.
As ESPN was doing its pre-race/rain delay filler show, Shannon Spake reported that Carl Edwards would start 11th if the Chase were to begin today. That was puzzling to me because I thought that after driver wins, you go down the stat columns to break ties (poles, top-5s, top-10s, etc.).
Based on that, here's how I'm seeing how the Chase-eligible drivers currently line up with four races left to run.

1. Jeff Gordon 5040: Four wins, six poles. He's the man to beat.
2. Jimmie Johnson 5040: Four wins, no poles, but confidence is back.
3. Tony Stewart 5030: Three wins in four weeks - it's 2005's title run all over again.

Those are the easy ones. Now here's where it gets complicated:
4. Denny Hamlin 5010: He's the only one of the eight remaining drivers with one win who've won a pole, so he gets the nod.
Then, you slide over to the top-5 column.
5. Matt Kenseth 5010: Has seven top-5s.
6. Jeff Burton 5010: Has six top-5s.

Here's where Carl Edwards should be in the Chase standings:
7. Kyle Busch 5010: Has five top-5s like Carl Edwards, but he has 12 top-10s.
8. Carl Edwards 5010: Has only eight top-10s.

Next, all three of these drivers have four top-5s, but Kevin Harvick wins the battle in the top-10 column. Those totals are in parenthesis:
9. Kevin Harvick 5010 (10)
10. Martin Truex, Jr. 5010 (8)
11. Kurt Busch 5010 (6)

And finally, the easy one. Without wins, Clint Bowyer starts from the bottom.
12. Clint Bowyer 5000

With four races left to run until the Chase field is set, I'm praying hard that someone - anyone - of the eight drivers with one win can break this darn deadlock. It'll make things a lot less complicated.
Even math geeks need a break every now and then, you know.


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