All bad news aside with the coming changes in the point system, four storylines punctuate the third year of the Chase.
- Can Matt Kenseth win his second championship in four years, just like Stewart did before him?
- Will Kevin Harvick pull off a historic double with the Busch and Cup titles in the same year?
- Can Jeff Gordon win the drive for five?
- Will a rookie become champion?
Unlike a year ago, when Kenseth had to drive like a maniac just to get in to the Chase, his back-to-back wins at Michigan and Bristol were the icing on his cake of consistency. He hasn't been any lower than third in points all year long, and his late surge has pushed him to the top, in prime position to become the 15th driver with multiple titles in NASCAR history.
He may be a big reason NASCAR has the Chase in the first place, but Kenseth's showing in 2006 should shut the critics up for good.
As shocking as this one was, Kevin Harvick can actually be considered as a favorite to make history. He already has the Busch title basically in the bag (that series doesn't have a Chase, but it should), and his Nextel Cup run is part of a major resurgence at Richard Childress Racing. Teammate Jeff Burton is also in the Chase mix, but he has to come from eighth.
Harvick has wins at Phoenix, Watkins Glen, and Richmond to his credit in 2006. The last two required some seriously daring passes late, but that's Harvick for you. If he's in contention, the daredevil comes out.
In the Busch Series, Harvick can coast home to the title. He's got somewhere around a gazillion-point lead.
Jeff Gordon, for all of his championship pedigree and capability, took a big points hit at Richmond, barely getting in just two points ahead of Kasey Kahne. But after a year away, Gordon will be a force. He's good at short tracks - a win at Martinsville in last year's Chase and a runner-up in April of this year - but he'll need to be consistent out of the gate to make up the differential he lost. Instead of being 15 points off the lead, Gordon has to come from 40 back.
And how about Denny Hamlin? From saying "who's he?" when he won the Bud Shootout at Daytona in February, Hamlin has blown everyone away with how good he is. He has two wins - both at Pocono starting from the pole with dominant cars - and has formerly-defending champion Tony Stewart as a teammate. With Stewart racing for 11th and the $1 million bonus that goes with it, his knowledge will only help Hamlin down the stretch.
Facts to note: In 2005, Tony Stewart led for all but one of the 10 weeks of the Chase. Only two non-Chasers won races - Dale Jarrett beat Stewart to the line on the final lap at Talladega and Kyle Busch won at Phoenix.
By contrast, the lead changed hands every week for the first half of the 2004 Chase before Kurt Busch took control and held on for dear life down the stretch. There were also two non-Chasers who found their way to Victory Lane - Joe Nemechek won at Kansas and Greg Biffle won at Homestead.
But it's time to throw out the stats and tighten the belts. See you at the starting line on Sunday.